MacroSquawk

  Recap Hi all, and thank you for tuning into the January update from MacroSquawk. First looking back to the November update. A lot of the views written about at the time had come to fruition. From that writing we saw continued weakness in dollars, and a major rally in cyclical commodities which was the highlight of the last post. The challenges were an underestimation of the robustness of the rally in cyclical stocks, which was a massive outperformer to the rest of the equity market. We have also seen what's presumably a fundamental shift in the macro with the Georgia elections that has shifted the interest rate and monetary policy outlook. Macro Thesis In a rare moment in the history of this blog, it seems looking forward into 1Q21 and 2Q21, we are entering into a more tepid outlook for risk assets where sentiment can, and might actually, roll over more easily. Most of the street is pricing in the possibility for record gains in the real economy. However, this view ignores the ...

Intro I had started this blog in November of 2019 while I was interning my senior year of NYU at a macro fund in New York. At the time I had gotten far enough along in developing my macro framework that I started this blog as way for me to clarify the thoughts I had about markets. To my good luck, there was interest in my writing and I continued. Now that I have a full year's worth of blog posts published, it seems only fitting to hold myself accountable to the performance of my recommendations. I plan to do this as long as I write the blog, through the good times and through the (hopefully not as many) bad times.  With that being said, being a newer market participant, 2020 has been an excellent training ground for developing skill in macro earlier on in my career. I have thought about the skills that must be developed as following two different avenues, which sometimes relate. The first of these is the fundamental global macro framework required to develop the views I have writte...